Nicola Sturgeon favourite to win independence referendum if vote secured, pollster warns

Pollster says Sturgeon would be favourite to win Scottish referendum

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Nicola Sturgeon confirmed this week she will ask the UK Government to agree to another Scottish independence referendum “in the spirit of co-operation”. Scotland’s First Minister told SNP members that “democracy must – and will – prevail” to allow another vote on Scottish independence as she closed her party’s virtual conference on Monday. Pollster Chris Curtis has predicted Ms Sturgeon could be favourite to win a second referendum.

Speaking to GB News, Mr Curtis said: “I do think that if somehow Nicola Sturgeon does manage to get a second referendum, I think she would be favourite to win.

“Our most recent poll did show ‘yes’ slightly ahead of ‘no’.

“There’s lots and lots of problems facing the no campaign.

“Last time they fought it on economics but that’s a lot more difficult this time.

“The medium Scottish voter doesn’t currently think that Scottish independence is going to have a negative impact on the economy.

“The medium Scottish voter doesn’t think it’s going to have an impact on their personal finances and that makes it a lot harder to weaponise those arguments that won it for the no campaign last time.”

The SNP leader has called for another referendum by the end of 2023 when the coronavirus pandemic is over, although the UK Government remains opposed to another vote.

When asked about allowing a referendum to take place during a Westminster Liaison Committee in March, Prime Minister Boris Johnson responded: “When you ask people to vote on a highly controversial and divisive issue, an issue that breaks up family relationships, that is extremely toxic and divisive, and you tell them this is going to happen only once in a generation, I think you should stick to it.”

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Ms Sturgeon told the virtual conference: “My approach to government and to politics will be, as far as possible, cooperation not confrontation.

“The experience of the pandemic and the challenges we face as a result reinforces my view that this is the right approach.

“So it is in that spirit of co-operation that I hope the Scottish and UK governments can reach agreement – as we did in 2014 – to allow the democratic wishes of the people of Scotland to be heard and respected.

“But, this much is clear: democracy must – and will – prevail.”


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She added: “The United Kingdom is after all a voluntary union of nations.

“Until recently no one seriously challenged the right of the people in Scotland to choose whether or not they wished to become independent.

“Frankly it is not up to a Westminster government which has just six MPs in Scotland to decide our future without the consent of the people who live here.

“As an independent country, co-operation between Scotland and our friends across the rest of the UK will continue, but it will be on a better basis: Scotland will be an equal partner.”

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