The Ontario government released novel coronavirus projection numbers for the province last Friday, and after a week’s study, Waterloo Public Health has now followed suit with local numbers.
On Friday, Waterloo Region’s acting medical officer of health Dr. Hsiu-Li Wang revealed the local projection totals to the media.
The projection numbers from the province revealed to be around 1,600 COVID-19 deaths by the end of April whereas locally Wang said we could see up to 66 people killed this month by the disease under the modelling system.
Had the province and region not taken the actions they did, the projected numbers would have been drastically higher as the provincial figure would have been as high as 6,000 deaths while the local number could have climbed to 246, according to Wang.
The ongoing coronavirus pandemic is projected to cost as many as 15,000 Ontarians their lives over a two-year course, a number the province says could have reached 100,000 without action. Wang says those numbers locally are up to 615 deaths, which could have climbed as high as 3,485 without action.
The doctor noted that the model is not a prediction but a took for officials to better plan for the future.
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“Models can help us understand what could happen to help support decision-making so that we can plan actions that will enable better outcomes,” she explained.
The projections were put together by experts at Ontario Health, Public Health Ontario and researchers at Ontario universities.
She says there is no way to provide a timeframe as to when the pandemic might reach its peak.
“Generally for epidemics, I can tell you, we know when it’s passed,” she explained, “we know that we’ve had a peak after it’s passed. So I don’t think it’s going to be different for this epidemic either.
“We continue to do things to try to have an impact on the spread of the disease. And so what we’re hoping for is obviously to continue to prevent every unnecessary death that we can.”
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