The US President was looking like a firm favourite to win the vote in November just weeks before the coronavirus crisis reached North American shores. Having survived a potentially catastrophic impeachment probe and with Democrats battling each other for candidacy, Mr Trump seemed set to remain in the White House. But now criticism of the President has become relentless after a number of controversial statements in press conferences surrounding the killer virus.
Worse still for Washington, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is warning of the possibility that 20 percent of people could be unemployed in the country.
As well as this, the coronavirus has led to businesses pleading for bailouts and factories closing temporarily while laying off workers.
Making strength of the economy a key part of his appeal, Mr Trump could face electoral backlash if various forecasts are to be proved correct.
Oxford Economics expects the US economy to shrink at an annual rate of 12 percent between April and June, JP Morgan Chase sees a second-quarter contraction of 14 percent on the horizon while Goldman Sachs warns of a huge 24 percent slide.
A report released this week by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics paints an increasingly worrying picture for President Trump.
Analyst Alan Abramowitz warned that such an economic downturn added to the President’s already negative net approval rating could “very likely doom Trump’s chances of winning a second term” based on historical trends over 11 previous elections.
In his reports, Mr Abramowitz adds: “A major recession would likely result in an Electoral College landslide for Trump’s Democratic challenger, especially if it is accompanied by a further decline in the president’s approval rating.”
Although the signs are perilous for Mr Trump, Mr Abramowitz acknowledges that given the deep partisan divide in the country, even a big recession may not sway voters as much as it would have in previous years.
Mr Abramowitz also suggested voters may not hold Mr Trump responsible for a recession brought about by an unforeseen event – the so-called “black swan” of Wall Street lore – such as a pandemic, although they may hold him responsible for the government’s reaction to the crisis.
Donald Trump explains key reason for easing coronavirus restrictions [INSIGHT]
Trump walks away stage after top aide admits to having fever [ANALYSIS]
Melania Trump coronavirus: Does FLOTUS have COVID-19? Results revealed [INSIGHT]
Mr Abramowitz added: “That story is still being written.”
Polling released this week also suggests the current President could be vulnerable come vote time in November.
Just 37 percent of Americans said they had a good amount or a great deal of trust in what they are hearing from Trump, while 60 percent say they had not very much or no trust at all in what he said.
Source: Read Full Article