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Although the polls are showing Joe Biden to be the favourite for president, it doesn’t mean it will happen. The 2016 Democrat candidate Hilary Clinton also had a clear lead over Donald Trump in the polls for almost the entire presidential campaign, but still ended up losing the presidency. This is because the US uses an electoral college system to elect its presidents, in which Ms Clinton lost.
As it stands, national polls show Mr Biden as being at a significant advantage over Mr Trump.
White seniors in particular, a group that aided Mr Trump’s victory in 2016, have shown signs of disapproval towards the President’s pandemic response.
Overall, Mr Biden’s approval rating stands at 51 percent, while Mr Trump has slipped down to 43 percent, down from 44 percent.
Some of the most important states are called battleground states, also called swing states, in which an election is won or lost due to the volatility of voters.
A battleground state is any state which could reasonably be won by a Democrat or a Republican in swing votes.
States that usually lean towards a single party are called safe states, as it is generally assumed that a candidate has enough support to draw up a sufficient share of voters in the election.
The main swing states right now are Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin.
Mr Biden is currently leading in all swing states except Ohio and Iowa, where Mr Trump has a 0.5 and two percent lead, respectively.
The state of Florida has proved a reliable indicator in recent elections.
The southern state has a diverse population, but is generally conservative-leaning and has a high population of older voters.
Both Mr Biden and Mr Trump undoubtedly view Florida as one of the most important states to reign victorious.
Similar trends can be seen in Ohio, a state which has voted for the winning president in every election since 1964.
President Trump won Ohio by a margin of 8.1 points in 2016, presenting a tough challenge for Democrats who are likely relying on a high turnout among Black voters.
Iowa is another state in which Donald Trump is leading right now.
Mr Biden’s approval rating in the conservative state is 45 percent, while Mr Trump’s stands at 47 percent currently.
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Rural Ohio has become increasingly Republican in recent elections, kept afloat by support from working-class voters.
In 2016, Mr Trump managed to claim the state with a swing of 15 points.
Michigan is the swing state in which Mr Biden holds the biggest lead, with his approval rating standing at 49.4 percent compared to Mr Trump’s 42.3 percent.
Michigan is a former Democrat stronghold in which Mr Trump managed to snag victory four years ago.
Undoubtedly, Mr Biden will be hoping to get the state back into his camp, overturning Mr Trump’s weak lead of 0.3 points.
No matter how this election is going to turn out, needless to say it will be one of the most important of modern times.
The poll results are taken from the Guardian polls which tracks the latest polls in eight crucial swing states.
The Guardian collates points in each of these states, as well as another set of national polls.
Any poll deemed unreliable or inaccurate, such as ones with small sample sizes, are excluded from the results.
The polling average used by the Guardian is a 14-day polling average, taking polls published in the last 14 dats and producing a mean average of their results.
For comapnies who have conducted a number of polls in the last 14 days, an average is produced in an effort to give them just one entry.
After this standardisation process is complete, an average of the daily entris are taken to present the polling average.
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