Much of what is happening in American politics today can be explained by two simple yet seemingly contradictory phenomena: Most partisans believe that the other side is more powerful than their own, while at the same time feeling quite certain that their own team will prevail in the upcoming election.<\/p>\n
Just as Democrats view Republicans as wielding outsize influence through dark money, structural advantages in our political system and control of institutions like the Supreme Court, Republicans view themselves as under siege by not just a federal government largely controlled by Democrats but also by the media, the entertainment industry and, increasingly, corporate C-suites.<\/p>\n
Republicans in particular hold a fatalistic view of the future of the country. In a recent Times poll, 56 percent said they believe we are \u201cin danger of failing as a nation.\u201d Far from the party of Ronald Reagan\u2019s \u201cMorning in America\u201d ad, the presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy countered during last week\u2019s debate: \u201cIt\u2019s not morning in America. We live in a dark moment.\u201d<\/p>\n
Given that many Republicans have such an apocalyptic view of the future, believing that the future of the country hangs in the balance if their party does not win the 2024 election, you might assume that Republicans would prioritize electability as they choose a nominee and seek a safe, steady standard-bearer to face President Biden next November. And you might assume, as many pundits and commentators do, that Republicans would begin to consider that nominating Donald Trump, with all his troubles and legal peril, would be too great a risk.<\/p>\n
But the belief that the other party would be simply disastrous for the nation is feeding the deep confidence that one\u2019s own side is going to prevail in 2024.<\/p>\n
What does this mean for Republicans? It means that G.O.P. voters see Mr. Biden as eminently beatable, and they think most Americans see him as they do. Given that, most Republicans aren\u2019t looking to be rescued from Donald Trump. The fact is, they really do like him, and at this point they think he\u2019s their best shot.<\/p>\n
Despite losing the 2020 elections and then experiencing a disappointing 2022 midterm, most Republicans seem confident that their candidate \u2014 even Donald Trump, especially<\/em> Donald Trump \u2014 would defeat Joe Biden handily in 2024. They have watched as Mr. Biden has increasingly stumbled, as gas prices have remained high and as Americans have continued to doubt the value of \u201cBidenomics.\u201d Many of them believe the pernicious fantasy pushed by Trump \u2014 and indulged by too many Republican leaders who should know better \u2014 that the 2020 election was not actually a loss.<\/p>\n Republican voters see the same polls that I do, showing Mr. Trump effectively tied against Mr. Biden even though commentators tell them that Mr. Trump is electoral poison. And they remember that many of those same voices told them in 2016 that Mr. Trump would never set foot in the White House. In light of those facts, Republicans\u2019 skepticism of claims that Mr. Trump is a surefire loser begins to make more sense.<\/p>\n It didn\u2019t have to be this way. In the immediate aftermath of the 2022 midterms, which were disappointing for many Republicans, there was a brief moment where it seemed like the party might take a step back, reflect and decide to pursue a new approach \u2014 with new leadership. In my own polling immediately following the election, I found the Florida governor Ron DeSantis running even with Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup among likely Republican primary voters, a finding that held throughout the winter. Even voters who consider themselves \u201cvery conservative\u201d gravitated away from Mr. Trump and toward the prospect of an alternative for a time.<\/p>\n But by the end of the spring 2023, following the Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg\u2019s indictment of Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis\u2019s rocky entrance into the presidential race, not only had Mr. Trump regained his lead, he had expanded upon it. Quinnipiac\u2019s polling of Republican primary voters showed that Mr. Trump held only a six-point lead over Mr. DeSantis in February, but that lead had grown to a whopping 31 points by May.<\/p>\n Any notion that Republicans ought to turn the page, lest they face another electoral defeat, largely evaporated. And the multitude of criminal indictments against Mr. Trump have not shaken the support of Republicans for him, but have instead seemingly galvanized them.<\/p>\n In our focus group of 11 Republican voters in early primary states this month, Times Opinion recruited a range of likely primary voters and caucusgoers to weigh in on the state of the race. They were not universally smitten with Donald Trump; some described him as \u201ctroubled,\u201d \u201carrogant\u201d or a \u201ctrain wreck.\u201d About half of our participants said they were interested in seeing a strong competitor to Mr. Trump within the party.<\/p>\n But the argument that Donald Trump won\u2019t be able to defeat Joe Biden? Not a single participant thought that Mr. Trump \u2014 or any Republican, really \u2014 would lose to Mr. Biden. In polling from CBS News, the ability to beat Joe Biden is one of the top qualities Republican primary voters say they are looking for, and they think Mr. Trump is the best poised to deliver on that result. Only 9 percent of likely Republican primary voters think Mr. Trump is a \u201clong shot\u201d to beat Mr. Biden, and more than six in 10 think Mr. Trump is a sure bet against Mr. Biden. Additionally, only 14 percent of Republican primary voters who are considering a Trump alternative said they were doing so because they worried Mr. Trump couldn\u2019t win.<\/p>\n In an otherwise strong debate performance last week, when Nikki Haley argued that \u201cwe have to face the fact that Trump is the most disliked politician in America \u2014 we can\u2019t win a general election that way,\u201d the reaction from the crowd was decidedly mixed. This isn\u2019t to say such an argument can\u2019t become more successful as the primary season goes on, as Mr. Trump\u2019s legal woes (and legal bills) continue to mount and as the alternatives to Mr. Trump gain greater exposure.<\/p>\n But for now they think that Mr. Biden is both enormously destructive and eminently beatable. They are undeterred by pleas from party elites who say Mr. Trump is taking the Republican Party to the point of no return.<\/p>\n Republicans both deeply fear a 2024 loss and also can\u2019t fathom it actually happening. Candidates seeking to defeat Mr. Trump in the primary can\u2019t just assume Republican voters will naturally conclude the stakes are too high to bet it all on Trump. For now, many of those voters think Mr. Trump is the safest bet they\u2019ve got.<\/p>\n Kristen Soltis Anderson is a Republican pollster and a moderator of Opinion\u2019s series of focus groups.<\/p>\n Source photographs by Joe Raedle\/Getty Images and Brian Snyder\/Reuters<\/p>\n