Since 2000, the population of the State of Palestine \u2013 the West Bank and the Gaza Strip combined \u2013 has increased by two-thirds from three to 5.2 million.<\/p>\n
The median age is just 19.2 years old, one of the youngest in the world and one of very few outside sub-Saharan Africa to be below 20. Compare this to a global average of 28, Israel\u2019s 29.1 or the UK\u2019s 40.<\/p>\n
This is perhaps best visualised by the country\u2019s population pyramid, showing the number of people that fit into the different age brackets. The high proportion of youngsters creates a triangular shape, tapering off at the top. Population ageing in the West produces a more bell-shaped chart.<\/p>\n
Academia describes this as a \u201cyouth bulge\u201d \u2013 a consequence of infant mortality rates falling rapidly while fertility remains high. According to Mr Urdal, who is now director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, Palestine\u2019s \u201cyouth bulge\u201d is among the largest in the Middle East.<\/p>\n
Don’t miss… <\/strong> We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you’ve consented to and to improve our understanding of you. This may include adverts from us and 3rd parties based on our understanding. You can unsubscribe at any time. More info<\/p>\n Palestine once had the highest fertility rate in the world, at almost eight births per woman in 1960 \u2013 almost double Israel\u2019s four at the time.<\/p>\n Gaza has been driving this trend. Even having fallen considerably, the Strip\u2019s rate of 3.3 today is the highest in the Middle East, well above that of the West Bank (2.9), Israel (2.5) and the G7 average of 1.5.<\/p>\n This is believed to be the case for a combination of reasons. Firstly, female labour force participation is among the lowest in the world, averaging just 15.5 percent over the past two decades, according to a recent study by the IMF.<\/p>\n Secondly, compensation systems encourage it, claims Jon Pedersen of the Fafo Foundation, a Norwegian social research institute. \u201cIt is employers that are willing to pay it,\u201d he said. \u201cTraditionally, men will get extra wages if they have extra children.\u201d<\/p>\n Finally, there is a sense of duty instilled by Hamas, who have ruled over the enclave ruthlessly since 2007. Faced with then-US president Donald Trump\u2019s 2019 peace plan perceived as skewed in favour of Israel, Palestinian ambassador Riyad Mansour warned his people would \u201caccelerate their reproductive machines\u201d in response.<\/p>\n Speaking to New Scientist, Mr Pedersen added: \u201cThere have been statements from Hamas urging women to have more children to create a larger army.\u201d<\/p>\n A sizeable body of empirical research has concluded that a strong \u201cyouth bulge\u201d elevates the risk of political violence. In particular, the presence of idle young men has been shown to aggravate its impact.<\/p>\n The Israeli blockade on the flow of goods and people through Gaza has taken a devastating toll. While the unemployment rate in the West Bank is 15.5 percent, on the Strip it is 47 percent.<\/p>\n According to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, over half of the Gazan population was estimated to be living in a state of poverty in 2017.<\/p>\n Rather than let discontent be unleashed inward, for years Hamas has channelled it towards Israel. And with Israel last night accused of launching its most devastating offensive yet – with 500 people killed in a missile strike on a hospital – this sentiment is only expected to feed into the narrative.<\/p>\n Dr Asha Amirali of the Centre for Development Studies at the University of Bath explored the relationship between the \u201cyouth bulge\u201d and political unrest in Iraq after years of Western occupation. To her, the parallels with Gaza are plain.<\/p>\n \u201cHamas feeds on the desperation of a brutalised population,\u201d she told Express.co.uk.<\/p>\n \u201cThe history of South Africa, the US Civil War, the Algerian freedom struggle, and so many other moments illustrate that violent domination, extreme inequality, and the subjugation of populations leads to violence by the oppressed.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr Urdal added: \u201cThere will be no resolution to the conflict so long as solutions aren\u2019t provided for this youth. It is a combination of economics, politics and demographics.\u201d<\/p>\n
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